The “something bad” that happened between 2008 and 2012 was the Great Crash of the Graded Stamp Market. To explain the realization difference between 2008, $26,000, and 2012, $11,500, 2008 was the peak of The Graded Stamp Market Bubble, 2005-2008. 2012-2016 was the nadir of The Great Graded Stamp Depression (mid-2010 to 2017). Since 2018, the GSM has been trending smartly upward. Some issues have appreciated at a blistering pace, while others have moped along. Having said that, at the end of the day, all will depend on whether two or more well-heeled collectors who are into graded stamps want this item. If two or more show up, it will go for a lot. If only one shows up, it will go for one advance over the price the leading graded stamp dealers are willing to pay. They know the market very, very well. Whether you want to join a bidding war is a highly personal choice. I’ve observed, however, that, contrary to the widely-held belief that the stamp market is recession-proof, the very high end of the Graded Stamp Market experiences volatility, and is at least significantly correlated to the movements of the financial markets and the economy.
Another factor one must consider is the trend of issues. Are the 1c Blue imperfs trending up or down. You be the judge.
A final factor is Eye Appeal. While this stamp is fabulous in many ways, and is a “Top of the Pop.” example, this stamp is not God’s gift to Eye Appeal in everyone’s book, due to the cancel and its interplay with the stamp design. There needs to be two or more collectors who care more about the stamp’s many attributes and shrug off, or disagree with, concerns about the weird economic times and lack of universal Eye Appeal— and they need to be players in this auction at this time.
The “something bad” that happened between 2008 and 2012 was the Great Crash of the Graded Stamp Market. To explain the realization difference between 2008, $26,000, and 2012, $11,500, 2008 was the peak of The Graded Stamp Market Bubble, 2005-2008. 2012-2016 was the nadir of The Great Graded Stamp Depression (mid-2010 to 2017). Since 2018, the GSM has been trending smartly upward. Some issues have appreciated at a blistering pace, while others have moped along. Having said that, at the end of the day, all will depend on whether two or more well-heeled collectors who are into graded stamps want this item. If two or more show up, it will go for a lot. If only one shows up, it will go for one advance over the price the leading graded stamp dealers are willing to pay. They know the market very, very well. Whether you want to join a bidding war is a highly personal choice. I’ve observed, however, that, contrary to the widely-held belief that the stamp market is recession-proof, the very high end of the Graded Stamp Market experiences volatility, and is at least significantly correlated to the movements of the financial markets and the economy.
Another factor one must consider is the trend of issues. Are the 1c Blue imperfs trending up or down. You be the judge.
A final factor is Eye Appeal. While this stamp is fabulous in many ways, and is a “Top of the Pop.” example, this stamp is not God’s gift to Eye Appeal in everyone’s book, due to the cancel and its interplay with the stamp design. There needs to be two or more collectors who care more about the stamp’s many attributes and shrug off, or disagree with, concerns about the weird economic times and lack of universal Eye Appeal— and they need to be players in this auction at this time.